Methodology

What counts as a scare

Any piece that predicts a crash, a bursting bubble or a recession, or urges people to sell stocks. Articles, videos, social posts and institutional reports all count.

Every entry needs a link, a date and at least one verbatim quote. Entries without a quote do not pass review.

Author, outlet and people quoted

Every scare has an author: a specific person such as a journalist, analyst, YouTuber or an investor posting on X. This is the core of the data model.

The author may publish on behalf of an outlet (newspaper, portal, agency) or on their own behalf. They often quote someone else, e.g. a fund manager or a central bank, so every quote records who said it.

Each person and each outlet has its own page with a chart, showing separately how often someone was the author and how often they were quoted.

How returns are calculated

The reference point is the index close on the day of the warning or the first session after it. Returns after 1, 3, 6 and 12 months use the first session on or after the target date.

The largest drop is the lowest close within 12 months relative to the warning-day level. Dividends and currency effects are not included.

Data

Nasdaq-100 (^NDX) daily closes from Yahoo Finance. The WIG and other indices are next.

Titles, descriptions and images come from the Open Graph metadata of the source pages. Quotes are verbatim, translations are for convenience only.